I am not tired of talking about politics. Are you tired of talking about politics?
Let me begin with a brief note about dear old Bernie Sanders. In any other universe, the fact that he had won six of the last seven primaries would count as something called “momentum.” But since the Democratic Party is as rigged and undemocratic as possible, they have larded the process with large numbers of prepackaged votes called superdelegates, who are disproportionally pledged to Clinton. In earned delegate counts, Sanders is barely behind Clinton, and her big lead is secured by these superdelegates. But they are pledged to Clinton, not bound to Clinton. And so what that means is that all we need to liven this race up a bit is an event — say a little something from the FBI — that will spook the superdelegates. In other words, despite the reassuring tones telling us over and over again that Hillary has it sewn up, the delightful and encouraging fact is that this is not so. Why am I rooting for Sanders? Well, I certainly don’t want him elected to any actual office, but the thought of the Democratic nominee running under the hammer and sickle does my heart good. It’s a truth in advertising thing.
Over on the Republican side, Cruz cleaned up in Wisconsin, and let me explain why this primary election is now a dead heat when it comes to the numbers, and why this favors Cruz. Why, in other words, Cruz is now the front runner.
As you no doubt recall, the magic number of delegates the candidates need to get to is 1237. Trump is 494 delegates short of that, and Cruz is 720 short. So what could I possibly mean by “dead heat?” But first, even as a straight up horse race, Cruz can still catch up. He is only 226 behind, but that is not what really counts. That’s not a dead heat. Here is what really counts.
In order to secure the requisite delegates, Trump has to gather 494 more delegates. In order to deny Trump the requisite delegates, Cruz (and also Kasich) need to gather 495 more delegates. 494/495 means dead heat. If Trump falls short of 1237 on the first ballot, a massive percentage of the delegates are released to vote for anyone they want. Then the logrolling starts, and Cruz has done a masterful job so far in organizing for such eventualities beforehand. That is why Cruz is now the front runner.
In ordinary circumstances, in an ordinary race, the candidate who came closest to 1237 would be the front runner before and after the first ballot. But these are not ordinary circumstances, and this has not been an ordinary race. Trump is not an ordinary candidate. And does anybody seriously think that the Republican convention, if given a rule-abiding way to not nominate Trump, will go ahead and nominate Trump? That the Republican solons were given a chance, without changing the rules in the middle of the night, to decline to do the Trump thing, and yet they insisted?
I would argue something along the lines of not a chance.
In any scenario of delagates or conventioneering there’s enough #NeverTrump’s to deny Trump the general, and there’s enough #NeverNotTrump’s to deny Cruz the general. It will be Hillary or Bernie in November unless something major happens between now and then. Like Great Awakening major.
Edit: The only real wildcard is if Hillary wins the Dem nomination and the FBI/DOJ drops an October Surprise, but I don’t see this happening.
I agree, I can’t see a scenario where somebody with an R after their name wins the general election. We seem too far down the road to secular statism to turn back without a huge change. At the risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, Google will determine who wins this election (and many future elections), and Google is solidly backing Hillary.
Like many other corporations, especially tech firms. At this point it would be hard to argue that the Republicans are the party of choice for greedy bastards.
Imagine a double wild card where Cruz also gets an October surprise for not being eligible to run.
Throw in #StraightBlue revenge voting against the GOP when they install their own.
Sorry, but this is more fanciful thinking of what is possible rather than a realistic assessment of what is probable. The facts are after New York it will not be mathematically possible for Cruz (just like Kasich) to obtain the 1237. If he continues to stay in the race he would be vulnerable to charges of hypocrisy after calling for Kasich to drop out for not being mathematically eligible. That’s for starters. I wonder how the Republican electorate will take to a candidate deliberately trying to open the convention to Establishment chicanery (it WILL NOT BE CRUZ) if it has… Read more »
That’s what I find so funny about this situation. If Cruz’s appeal is that he’s supposedly an “outsider” that the establishment hates, why on earth would this establishment nominate him if they could do anything else at all?
Before we even proceed with answering that, are we really about to entertain the idea that the establishment is really cool with Cruz? They do hate him, and they hate him for particular reasons. It’s for things like this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/12/22/5-times-ted-cruz-went-to-war-with-the-republican-establishment/ But I think the idea here is that the GOP knows it’s skating on thin ice with both contingents, the more conventional-ESQUE (i.e. conservative, but not establishment conservative), you might say, erstwhile tea party types, AND the Trump supporters. If they hack off every last possible contingent they might need to keep some semblance of a party (and/or of the… Read more »
If they nominate cruz, the Trump camp stays home, the 20% of democrats polled saying they’d cross the aisle in the general go for the D ticket, and the republicans lose in a reverse reagan.
If they nominate anyone else, the cruz and trump camp combined could empty the house of every republican seat.
That’s this Democrat’s dream.
Just remember when it happens it’s not a mandate on the polices of campus crazies or gun control, it’s a slap at the republican party with the only stick left in the bucket.
Democrats would do well to stop at just the economic part of their platform, because if they keep pushing social issues while the RNC’s knife is fresh in the backs of an America already pissed up to their necks at Political Correctness, there will be violence.
I think the idea is that they are so pessimistic about this cycle, and in such a panic about the party’s survival, that they just might be willing to take their lumps this time and do what’s strategically necessary, even if it involves accepting person like Cruz, who would have been unthinkable for the establishment to support under ANY kind of remotely conventional election year. But this one is not that. To come to any other conclusion is to conclude that the likes of Lindsey Graham, Jeb Bush, Mitch McConnell, et al, are really okay with Cruz.
Winning elections isn’t strategically necessary for the Republican Party, or at least hasn’t been so far.
In fact it seems as though the only reason R’s have for winning anything is so they can give the D’s everything they couldn’t push through on their own.
It wouldn’t be hypocritical at all. Cruz is calling for Kasich to drop out because he CAN’T get the nomination, even at a contested convention. Under the current rules, which are all we have to go off of, only someone who has won at least 8 states can be considered for nomination. That makes Cruz literally the only person other than Trump that can be nominated.
If it’s contested the 8 state rule would no longer apply and anyone could be thrown in for nomination.
Here’s what I see as the outcome of the FBI/DOJ situation. Comey, or more likely, Lynch will intentionally bungle the process (investigation, prosecution, trial, whatever), and give a big “Oops, oh well” when Hillary gets off scot-free. I bet Lynch and team are already positioning some mid-level player to take the fall for the bungle.
“…are already positioning…”
That is the reason for committees in modern American government and business bureaucracies.
When the camel (the horse designed by the committee) is found dead and stiff, no one takes a fall, because no one really answers to “who made THAT decision”.
No one made a decision, they were just “implementing the recommendations of the committee”.
Tired of the politicians. Tired of the establishment. Tired of people thinking that “their vote” is important or that this is “the most important election” since sliced bread.
Popping popcorn in preparation for Cleveland.
Tough to be on Glen Beck’s side…Very tired of him.
Politics or moral issues do not make me weary, however.
Interesting to see how the Kasich/Rubio delegations will horse-trade in the end.
Channeling my inner J. Seinfield: Who ARE these delegates?
Still intrigued by the notion that The Donald does not want to win but only spoil the race for H.
So far as I can tell this notion only exists in the minds of Republicans with extremely limited imaginations.
Whether he’s aiming to or not, his success has almost guaranteed a D win in November (see my earlier comment). And if Trump really wants to win the general, he needs to court #NeverTrump (conservatives and/or evangelicals). I don’t see him doing that (e.g. he said that Roe should stand).
Both parties are in disarray, but the Demos have a history of wilder conventions; remember 1968?
“Well, I certainly don’t want him elected to any actual office, but the thought of the Democratic nominee running under the hammer and sickle does my heart good. It’s a truth in advertising thing.”
Meanwhile, Hillary has accused Sanders of not being a “real” democrat, apparently because real democrats don’t openly use “the S word.”
The DNC should sue him for exposing trade secrets.
“…and suddenly, there were lawyers everywhere!”
I am sure Vince Foster and Ron Brown are convinced.
There is the conspiracy theory that Trump and Hillary are working in cahoots, Trump actually serving no other purpose than to create a Hillary win. I’m not suggesting it’s true, simply that its far more pleasant to lurk in the realm of wild conspiracy theories at the moment. I’m at ground zero for the Bernidines, some 80% of voters here have endorsed him. As far as they are concerned, Trump and Hillary are one and the same.
Bernidines? Berners? Sandernistas?
Bernouts.
Given his popularity among college-age women, Bernadettes.
Bernie’s Bedwetters, soon to be Bern Victims.
What are you smoking?
Do you have to be smoking something to repeat a theory you clearly say you don’t believe?
Nothing wrong smoking, really. I didn’t want to be understood otherwise than friendly. For me, it’s so obvious that Hillary is part of the Establishment, and that Trump is scaring the most the Establishment not by what you hear through the mediastream mouthpieces, but reading his program, and listening to him during his rallyes to the people. Only Trump can do what he’s planning to do, and it’s exactly what people have hoped for, since a very long time. He has all what it takes. I use to like Cruz but when I searched further in what he do and… Read more »
Right, my only point is, you reacted that way to ME’s post, when she clearly said she didn’t *believe* that theory, she was just repeating what she’d heard.
Well, my excuses to ME. Never a good thing to be a reactor; better be a thinker. I agree. I was in a rush, and I did’nt think much and just reacted. When I was back home, I was happy you gave me the opportunity to explain.
Wishful thinking.
I am voting TRUMP!
Here’s the math that actually counts: No Republican is going to win the White House without keeping every state Romney carried in 2012 and also picking off at least two or three states that Obama carried. Take a look at the list of states Obama carried in 2012. Tell me in which of them either Trump or Cruz would be competitive. Not only do I not see Trump or Cruz picking up any states, I think they would actually lose a few. Heck, with its huge Latino population, if Trump is the nominee the GOP might even lose Texas (for… Read more »
You have a mindspring.com email?
EtR, you are a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.
Ok I’ll bite. Other than the fact that I’ve had the account for 20 years, what is remarkable about a mind spring email?
Well no insult was intended, it’s just the “20 years” part that is remarkable :)
But “blogger” was barely even a concept 20 years ago so the email address itself is probably not 20 years old.
I actually have a half dozen mindspring addresses; when I got my mindspring account 20 years ago it came with ten free addresses. So I actually could still create four more. mindspring addresses if I wanted to. I think the blogger one is two years old.
But I don’t find my emails to be any more interesting than Hillary’s emails, which is to say not very. Though I will grant it’s slightly more interesting than Ilion’s Idiocy about Cruz not being a natural born citizen.
I’m going to presume to answer for Ilion, ahem… “But YOU KNOW he was born in Canada, so YOU KNOW he’s not a Natural Born Citizen!! You liar!!”
Well, I just assumed that mindspring went the way of Compaq, Zima, and Tamagotchi
By the way, I will note that nobody has disagreed with my central point that the electoral college math does not favor any Republican likely to get the nomination.
Politics is much more dynamic than that. Things change, and when they do, they can change fast.
New York, Ohio, and Florida.
You think either Trump or Cruz could carry New York, Ohio and Florida? Seriously? What color is the sky on your planet?
Look at the numbers from the Ohio and Florida primaries — it’s not too fantastic. We’ll see about New York of course, but it wouldn’t surprise me.
Throw in open borders and the demographics get much worse. Throw in intentional importing of foreign nations (ala Europe) and the powers that be can ensure there is never another white protestant male president ever again.
The opportunity for team pagan to kill America is at hand. Neophytes like Wilson play right into your hands.
The United States of America will fracture along ethnic and religious lines and devolve into war.
“I am not tired of talking about politics. Are you tired of talking about politics?”
But, apparently, you *are* tired of — as in, not at all interested in — seeking truth.
And the truth is that Ted Cruz is not a natural born US citizen. Also, he seems rather comfortable with slimy politics (as see: Iowa, Cruz, Carson)
Why are we even talking about Cruz when there’s no way he’s going to be nominated?
I’m not talking about Cruz; I’m talking about a Constitutional Republic.
You might as well be talking about unicorns.
So it seems
We’re maybe late Republic, but probably early Empire. (Roman, that is.)
Everybody claims to want to restore the Republic, and nobody really does.
I do.
I also understand that actually restoring the Republic will upset a lot of applecarts.
Serious question, llion (or is it Ilion?): is a person born via C-scection a Natural Born Citizen (assuming all other factors accord with whatever NBC means)? How do you know?
“Serious question …”
Where is the serious question
Here
Actually that’s two serious questions. Sorry.
Nope, there is no serious question there.
Well, it’s as serious as the nonsense about Cruz not being a natural born citizen deserves.
If anyone other than Trump gets the nod, expect all hell to break loose within the party. In fact, expect all hell to break loose, period. Do you really think that all of the frustration and anger toward the “system” that’s driving Trump’s success is going to just go away if he gets cheated out of the nomination? Won’t it just be further aggravated? I’m surprised, Doug, that you, a conservative would like to bring about this chaos. Isn’t that part of the reason you don’t like Trump, because you fear the chaos that could come from his presence in… Read more »
“Do you really think that all of the frustration and anger toward the
“system” that’s driving Trump’s success is going to just go away if he
gets cheated out of the nomination?”
Yes, yes I do. The same way that Occupy Wall Street went away, the same way the Tea Party when away – the same way that any of these “movements” start quickly and burn out faster.
Yes, yes I do. The same way that Occupy Wall Street went away, the same way the Tea Party when away – the same way that any of these “movements” start quickly and burn out faster.
And lo’ here we are with Bernie Sanders/Black Lives Matter and Donald Trump and the resurgence of nationalism far beyond what the Tea Party ever was.
While undeniably interesting, Doug’s political predictions have so far been failures. In any case, I have some popcorn and am looking forward to the show!
This is the wildest presidential campaign I’ve ever seen. I am definitely not tired of talking about it yet. Not to mention that a true conservative and a true believer could very well become president.
*snick*
Why do I have a feeling Doug has this poster in his office and bedroom….
http://e273468a55383449143d-4769e1e8e4501fd5520bae6885765002.r94.cf1.rackcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Tattooed-Ted-Cruz-Poster-by-Sabo.jpg
” Are you tired of talking about politics?
Oh my yes! It happened shortly after I became a Christian and thought Jimmy Carter knew what it meant to be born again.
Sin has gotten us into a lot more trouble than science, education, and politics could ever get us out of. (Miserable crutches and opiates these 3.)
Sorry, guys, but I probably won’t be commenting for a few days. I ate at Taco Bell last night, and my flatulence is really bad. And I can’t risk another year-long ban from the library. So I’m heading home.
If you sow the wind you’ll reap the whirlwind!
https://youtu.be/jrQENy2IGNs
Any word yet on the ethics of Cruz accepting the delegates from the not-allowed-to-vote state of Colorado?
Doug, do you and Mark Levin buy from the same dealer?
Levin: The Real Race Begins After Tonight
https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/04/levin-the-real-race-begins-after-tonigh